‘Going to be a domino effect’: Local expert explains possible next steps in Iran

A Creighton University law professor said there are multiple ways Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death could play out, and it’s still unclear how it could ultimately affect the Middle East.Foreign conflict expert Michael Kelly said the strikes on Iran in Operation Epic Fury could have global repercussions.”We have knocked over the first domino, and there is going to be a domino effect in this region, and I don’t know where the last domino is going to fall,” Kelly said.He says to watch the Kurds, an ethnic group in northern Iran.”They have been split since the days of the Ottoman Empire, from the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Kurds in southeastern Turkey,” Kelly said.According to Kelly, there are roughly 30 million Kurds in this region, also called Kurdistan, who want to govern themselves. After Khamenei’s death, Kelly says the Kurds may use the instability to break away.”They want nothing more than to be independent and have their own country,” Kelly said.He said the United States has had to stop a Kurd secession before when Kurds in Iraq tried to break free after the death of Saddam Hussein. If a Kurd movement were to break out now, Kelly said it could mobilize Kurds in Turkey.”If Turkey ends up getting attacked in this process, Turkey is a NATO ally, and the United States is treaty-bound to respond to that,” Kelly said.However, the Kurds are a U.S. ally as well.”I don’t know that we have really thought this through with respect to a lot of the ripple effects that are going to occur from our actions,” Kelly said.Additionally, Kelly said the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could alter the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.”Iran has been supplying Russia with most of the drones that Russia is using in the war in Ukraine. Now, that is going to be cut off effectively,” Kelly said.There is no way of knowing for certain how many Iranian drones the Russian military has, but without them, the Ukrainians could possibly regain ground and turn the tide. “Suddenly, Vladimir Putin might decide peace talks look more attractive that they have,” Kelly said.Kelly said President Donald Trump’s goal of a regime change has never been done with only air power. He said to establish a democracy, there would need to be American troops on the ground and U.S. weapons in Iranian hands.Trump has not said what comes next or how long the United States may be involved in military action during this operation.Make sure you can always see the latest news, weather, sports and more from KETV NewsWatch 7 on Google search.NAVIGATE: Home | Weather | Local News | National | Sports | Newscasts on demand |