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Will gas prices continue to drop as violence flares in the Strait of Hormuz?
A war in another part of the world may be having a bigger impact at the gas pump, according to one analyst.
WASHINGTON —
The U.S. military launched new strikes against Iran on Tuesday night in response to reported attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the day, the latest test for an initial agreement that aims to end the fighting.
Those developments could impact gas prices in the days ahead, but at least for now, a war in another part of the world is having a bigger impact at the pump, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
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As of Tuesday night, gas prices were down nearly 40 cents per gallon on average nationally compared to last month, according to AAA, but the pace of that decline has slowed in recent days, and President Donald Trump has taken notice.
Ahead of the holiday weekend, Trump wrote on social media, “Just as I promised, Oil Prices are plummeting FAST, and Gas Prices at the pump are dropping too, but not as fast as they should be. ”
Part of the reason for that, according to De Haan, is continued violence in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran are still sparring over management of the crucial oil shipping route. That has resulted in outbreaks of violence, although there has yet to be a return to full-scale fighting. Traffic in the Strait has rebounded but is still not back to pre-war levels.
Another faraway war is also affecting prices at the pump.
“The Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries, that’s more problematic and more impactful to the price of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel than what’s ongoing in the Strait of Hormuz as the situation has evolved,” said De Haan.
That’s because those Russian refineries are needed to transform oil into gasoline. Ukrainian attacks have knocked out capacity, causing supply shortages in Russia that have rippled through the global economy.
The summertime also brings high demand and a more expensive blend of gasoline. Another curveball could be severe weather in the midst of hurricane season.
With these factors taken together, De Haan is doubtful that gas prices will return to pre-war levels by Labor Day. He said Americans may have to wait until Christmas, or even 2027, to see such a drop.
