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NBA moves closer to anti-tanking measures with drastic change to draft lottery odds

The NBA has moved closer to a slightly expanded 16-team lottery, one that will flatten odds of winning the No. 1 pick and try to deter tanking by drastically lowering the chances of winning for the teams that finish with the three worst records.

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NBA moves closer to anti-tanking measures with drastic change to draft lottery odds

I mean just get starting with the thing that’s kind of been hanging over you guys for the past couple of days. You guys are absolved from that investigation. They showed you guys did nothing wrong. What was the past few days like for you in dealing with that? Fine. Walked my dog, hung out with my family, came to practice, see my guys, uh, everything’s good. You had the comments obviously about anti being anti-tanking in Utah the other night, um, and then kind of seeing this kind of hang over there. It’s one thing for fans and media to kind of ask about that. Do you have another player that’s kind of insinuating? How does that kind of sit with you? I mean, I know who we are and what we do, so it doesn’t bother me just because people have comments doesn’t doesn’t mean anything. I, I would never put our organization. I would never put Scott and BJ in any type of position like that. I have too much respect for the game. I have too much. For our players. I have too much respect for this city. Uh, just wouldn’t do it, period. We’re out there to win and our guys are going to play hard until the very end, period. So when you, you hear this, what, why don’t you describe to us what went through your head in that moment? In which moment in the moment where you called *** timeout, um, well, I should have called *** timeout actually to play before that when it was 3:49 on the clock, but doing the math, that’s 24 and 24 is 48. Figured we’d go get *** quick shot and then I’d still be able to use the timeout. I wanted to give our guys rest, but at the same time, uh, didn’t want to waste the timeout. So we went down, the clock kind of dragged on, and the ball went out of bounds after we scored *** bucket, and they kind of let it drag for like. You know, 5 seconds or so, so it started getting low. So I still wanted to get it. Didn’t realize that they were in the penalty. Looked across the court though and, and see, you know, who we would have fouled, but they had their two best players getting ready to do *** pick and roll. So I just told Doug to foul. Should have told him who to foul, but he fouled and, you know, not *** big deal. I, I still got the, the time out in that, in that moment, learned *** couple of valuable lessons. 1 under 4 minutes to just call your time out and and do what you need to do. Also make sure that I’m checking before I I I say foul and make sure that those guys aren’t in the bonus. But you know, basketball is all about learning. Cool. And it’s *** use it or lose it situation, right? And we’ve we’ve lost it before and you know, had I known that they were in that in the in the bonus, we would have lost it then. But you know, he did miss *** free throw. What are those, uh, therapeutic moments like when you’re walking the dog? Oh, when I’m walking the dog, you know, I mean, it’s great, man. He’s ***, he’s *** wild guy. His name is Ghost. Uh, he’s *** staffy and he, he’s, he’s wild. So we, no, we have *** good time, man. Um, that’s, that’s really you’re out in the sunshine and, you know, breathing some fresh air, and he knows absolutely nothing about what’s going on, so it’s all love. No doubt, no doubt, for you guys stepping in that arena for the final time tomorrow this season, just what are the emotions like? What do you want this fan base to know? Um, we love them first and foremost. We appreciate all of their support and we are going to work day and night to get it right how they know that it’s supposed to be. And we won’t let them settle for anything less. So we appreciate everything that they do, coming out, supporting, bringing the energy into the arena. It’s *** special place and we will continue to define it. I know the record may not reflect it, but are you, do you see the foundation that you’ve laid with *** lot of these young guys, new guys in the NBA to let them know what this business is all about? Um, I, I think like when you watch the games and these guys have been playing lately, there’s *** proof of concept about the defensive intensity, the picking up on the defense, the movement of the basketball in 0.5. And they’re they’re playing good basketball. I think that, you know, some of these young guys have grown immensely, not, not even since they’ve got the opportunity, but even from the beginning of the season watching them in summer league and all of that, uh, their bodies getting stronger and their reads on the floor and just the kind of corporate knowledge that comes along with the NBA and that is probably the biggest blessing to watch them grow that way. Stephen Curry look like? He never looks bad to me. I mean, he’s always looked scary because you know the gravity that he possesses and what he does on the court, and I think for all of us, the NBA, you know, Warriors fans, it’s beautiful to see him on the court because he has been *** special. Generational player and regardless of competing against him, he brings out the best in you because when you play against *** player that is at that level you have to raise your level and that’s always fun to compete against whether he plays tomorrow night or not DeRosa is going to get his own night if he’s kind of celebrated. How awkward could that be playing in *** game if he’s playing where they’re going to have *** bunch of things in your honor? No, I mean, it’s well deserved, to be honest with you, so I don’t think there will be any awkwardness. I think that the biggest piece is that he gets the love from *** fan base that he’s come to and showed what type of true. that he is night in and night out, day in and day out, he comes in, brings everything to the game, and he comes in at nighttime and gets his work. He goes straight from the plane and gets his body worked on. So you know that’s for him, but it’s also for us. It’s also for the fans because if he doesn’t do that. And there’s *** little kid that’s got *** tan jersey on and he’s coming to see him and guess what, he’s not playing. Well that doesn’t happen with him because he’s he’s pretty much always available and that’s uh probably the best ability is availability. Yeah.

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The NBA moved closer to a slightly expanded 16-team lottery Tuesday, one that will flatten odds of winning the No. 1 pick and try to deter tanking by drastically lowering the chances of winning for the teams that finish with the three worst records.The “3-2-1 Lottery” proposal, which was reviewed by the league’s general managers, will be further discussed before it goes the Board of Governors for a final vote that is expected next month. It will not change the current format, which will likely be utilized for the final time when the lottery for this year’s draft is held May 10. This would go into effect next year.The proposed plan will be discussed again at a competition committee meeting on Thursday. It would add two teams to the current 14-team lottery structure and incentivizes winning even for teams that aren’t still in the race for play-in or playoff spots.The 16 teams in this proposal would all get somewhere between one and three lottery balls — hence the 3-2-1 name that has been attached to the plan — and the awarding of those balls would be broken down thusly:The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in both conferences would get one lottery ball each.The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds going into the play-in tournament would get two lottery balls each.The remaining 10 teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in would all get three lottery balls — with the exception of the three worst teams in the standings. They would enter “draft relegation” and have one of their lottery balls taken away, which the NBA hopes would keep teams from trying to lose as many games as they can for the worst possible record. That practice, the so-called “tanking,” has been rewarded in the current system by better lottery odds.The league was furious this season at how some teams were clearly prioritizing their draft spot over winning, even fining the Utah Jazz $500,000 “for conduct detrimental to the league” over the way two top plays were held out of the fourth quarter of a pair of games — one of which the Jazz actually won.There was a clear race to the bottom this season with five teams — Washington, Indiana, Utah, Memphis and Brooklyn — all having winning percentages below .180 after the All-Star break. There has never been a season in NBA history, until now, where so many teams lost that often after the break.”The incentives are not necessarily matched here,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in February when discussing the correlation between the teams with the worst records having the best lottery odds. “I think the tradition in sports where the worst-performing team receives the first pick from their partners, when any economist comes and looks at our system, they always point out you have the incentives backwards there. That doesn’t necessarily make sense.”Silver has vowed that the league — which has changed the lottery system several times over the past decades — would strongly address the tanking issue before next year.Odds of winningThe teams that finish with the three worst records would all have a 5.4% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, and could not fall below the No. 12 pick.But the best odds of winning No. 1 would go to the other seven teams that miss the play-in and the playoffs — with those clubs all having an 8.1% chance of finishing with the No. 1 selection.The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds would also have a 5.4% chance of winning the lottery, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games would both have a 2.7% chance.Major changes to oddsThe three worst teams this season — Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn — have 14% odds of winning the lottery and are guaranteed a top-seven pick. (In Indiana’s case, if the Pacers finish with the fifth or sixth pick, it would convey to the Los Angeles Clippers because of a previous trade.)In the proposed system, those teams would have a 5.4% chance of winning and could fall as low as 12th in the first-round draft order. There would be a 72% chance that those teams would fall outside the top five.”This is a decision that needs to be made at the ownership level,” Silver said earlier this year. “It has business implications, has basketball implications, has integrity implications for the league. It’s one that we take very seriously. We are going to fix it, full stop. I want to say that directly to our fans. … Incentives need to be fixed. We will fix them. I’m looking forward to that.”Other proposed changesMore elements within the 3-2-1 proposal include:No team could win back-to-back No. 1 picks or have three consecutive picks in the top five.No protections in trades would be allowed for picks that fall between Nos. 12 and 15.The league would have “expanded disciplinary authority” to address tanking, with potential moves including lowering teams’ lottery odds or even changing draft positions.The proposed plan, if approved, would sunset after the 2029 draft and require the Board of Governors to vote to either continue the system or make changes yet again.

The NBA moved closer to a slightly expanded 16-team lottery Tuesday, one that will flatten odds of winning the No. 1 pick and try to deter tanking by drastically lowering the chances of winning for the teams that finish with the three worst records.

The “3-2-1 Lottery” proposal, which was reviewed by the league’s general managers, will be further discussed before it goes the Board of Governors for a final vote that is expected next month. It will not change the current format, which will likely be utilized for the final time when the lottery for this year’s draft is held May 10. This would go into effect next year.

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The proposed plan will be discussed again at a competition committee meeting on Thursday. It would add two teams to the current 14-team lottery structure and incentivizes winning even for teams that aren’t still in the race for play-in or playoff spots.

The 16 teams in this proposal would all get somewhere between one and three lottery balls — hence the 3-2-1 name that has been attached to the plan — and the awarding of those balls would be broken down thusly:

  • The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in both conferences would get one lottery ball each.
  • The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds going into the play-in tournament would get two lottery balls each.
  • The remaining 10 teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in would all get three lottery balls — with the exception of the three worst teams in the standings. They would enter “draft relegation” and have one of their lottery balls taken away, which the NBA hopes would keep teams from trying to lose as many games as they can for the worst possible record. That practice, the so-called “tanking,” has been rewarded in the current system by better lottery odds.

The league was furious this season at how some teams were clearly prioritizing their draft spot over winning, even fining the Utah Jazz $500,000 “for conduct detrimental to the league” over the way two top plays were held out of the fourth quarter of a pair of games — one of which the Jazz actually won.

There was a clear race to the bottom this season with five teams — Washington, Indiana, Utah, Memphis and Brooklyn — all having winning percentages below .180 after the All-Star break. There has never been a season in NBA history, until now, where so many teams lost that often after the break.

“The incentives are not necessarily matched here,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in February when discussing the correlation between the teams with the worst records having the best lottery odds. “I think the tradition in sports where the worst-performing team receives the first pick from their partners, when any economist comes and looks at our system, they always point out you have the incentives backwards there. That doesn’t necessarily make sense.”

Silver has vowed that the league — which has changed the lottery system several times over the past decades — would strongly address the tanking issue before next year.

Odds of winning

The teams that finish with the three worst records would all have a 5.4% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, and could not fall below the No. 12 pick.

But the best odds of winning No. 1 would go to the other seven teams that miss the play-in and the playoffs — with those clubs all having an 8.1% chance of finishing with the No. 1 selection.

The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds would also have a 5.4% chance of winning the lottery, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games would both have a 2.7% chance.

Major changes to odds

The three worst teams this season — Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn — have 14% odds of winning the lottery and are guaranteed a top-seven pick. (In Indiana’s case, if the Pacers finish with the fifth or sixth pick, it would convey to the Los Angeles Clippers because of a previous trade.)

In the proposed system, those teams would have a 5.4% chance of winning and could fall as low as 12th in the first-round draft order. There would be a 72% chance that those teams would fall outside the top five.

“This is a decision that needs to be made at the ownership level,” Silver said earlier this year. “It has business implications, has basketball implications, has integrity implications for the league. It’s one that we take very seriously. We are going to fix it, full stop. I want to say that directly to our fans. … Incentives need to be fixed. We will fix them. I’m looking forward to that.”

Other proposed changes

More elements within the 3-2-1 proposal include:

  • No team could win back-to-back No. 1 picks or have three consecutive picks in the top five.
  • No protections in trades would be allowed for picks that fall between Nos. 12 and 15.
  • The league would have “expanded disciplinary authority” to address tanking, with potential moves including lowering teams’ lottery odds or even changing draft positions.
  • The proposed plan, if approved, would sunset after the 2029 draft and require the Board of Governors to vote to either continue the system or make changes yet again.

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