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LINCOLN — Some look at Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen’s second term as inevitable.
Sure, Pillen faces questions about a $2.5 million no-bid state contract that is under investigation by the Lincoln Police Department. Yes, Nebraska’s most influential political consultant left his campaign after the candidate filing deadline. And Pillen faced backlash for calling some of his critics “libtards” during a telephone town hall.
But the governor of a red state where Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-to-1 and a growing number of nonpartisans faces no serious Republican opponent after more than a year of loud and persistent threats of a well-funded GOP primary challenger.
That lack of a credible GOP threat leaves the incumbent governor with a $10 million political war chest raised in anticipation of a possible repeat of the three-headed Republican primary he won in 2022, the most expensive in state history. His last hurdle: Democratic former State Sen. Lynne Walz of Fremont.
Pillen has made no secret that he is inclined to use some of his millions on campaigns other than his own, with his staff telling state lawmakers who disagree with his agenda that they could face his wrath. One example: He has said publicly that he needs voters to send him at least three more legislative conservatives if they want “transformative” property tax reform.
Pillen has sought and not received $170 million in property tax offsets in this year’s legislative session, arguing that such efforts will require considering eliminating some sales tax exemptions that lawmakers have previously rejected.
One GOP lawmaker Pillen’s team has pressured to support increasing the services subject to sales taxes is State Sen. Tanya Storer of Whitman, a lawmaker from north-central Nebraska who has opposed Pillen’s attempt.
She said, “Plain and simple, conservatives don’t raise taxes.” Storer said she would only “support a tax increase if there is a direct offset to decrease property taxes.”
“The current system of credits has provided some short-term relief but is not resulting in an actual reduction of property taxes,” Storer said. “A tax increase without a direct offset to decrease property taxes only makes Nebraska a higher-tax state.”
Pillen’s political team has also actively tried to recruit challengers to GOP candidates who have blocked some of his efforts, including State Sen. Merv Riepe of Ralston, who opposed the governor’s push for a six-week abortion ban.
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Riepe declined to comment for this story.
Pillen sidestepped an Examiner question about how he intends to use his campaign war chest, saying in a statement that his campaign is not “taking anything for granted in this midterm election.”
“I look forward to earning the trust of the voters again by talking about everything we’ve done to lower taxes, protect our values and keep our communities safe,” Pillen said.
Perre Neilan, political strategist at Neilan Strategy Group in Lincoln, says Pillen “can and should share some of his war chest to advance his policy agenda of lower taxes and less government.”
The governor has not said publicly whether that means challenging legislative Republicans who frustrate him or funding challengers to flip Democratic seats in the officially nonpartisan Unicameral.
But money matters more as legislative races have gotten more expensive in recent years. In 2024, nearly every legislative race surpassed six figures in spending.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the Democratic Party’s national arm that targets legislative races, plans to pour some of its $50 million political investment across 27 states into the Nebraska legislative races to help Nebraska Democrats break the 33-vote Republican supermajority.
Meg Mandy, the founder and partner for One House Strategies, said Republican governors pouring money into Nebraska legislative races is nothing new.
“Pete Ricketts did it when he was the Governor, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pillen does it, too … but with all of the trouble Pillen has gotten himself into … frankly, I’d be surprised if anyone wanted to take his money,” Mandy said.
Pillen’s $10 million fundraising tally is a significant amount of money for a Nebraska gubernatorial campaign. Several potential Pillen challengers who considered bids, including multistate agribusinessman Charles Herbster and former Omaha State Sen. Brett Lindstrom, discussed the challenge of raising money for a race involving an incumbent with that much money and the tools of state government at his disposal.
Dona-Gene Barton, a political science professor who studies political behavior at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, has previously described the fundraising prowess of the incumbent governor as creating a “David vs. Goliath situation for potential challengers.”
But in a general election, beyond the pool of Republicans willing to unify behind a nominee, some concerns about Pillen’s vulnerability remain. Herbster, a frequent critic of the governor who had his own issues during the 2022 primary, alluded to some of his concerns in a statement announcing his decision not to run.
Among Herbster’s online criticisms over time: Pillen’s promises of property tax relief versus public expectations and experience. The state’s budget deficit makes it more likely he’ll have to raise state taxes or fees. He’s also faced criticisms from Nebraska companies large and small who say they need someone to pitch the state to businesses looking to start or relocate and grow here.
“As critical as I have been, losing the state to a liberal Democrat would be devastating,” Herbster said in the statement. “Governor Pillen will need to step up his game to be successful in November.”
National polling hints at Pillen’s issues, indicating that Nebraska is led by one of the nation’s least popular incumbent governors. Morning Consult in February showed Pillen receiving the approval of 46% of the Nebraskans surveyed — and the disapproval of 41%.
Pillen has seen some successes: His team helped pass one of the largest income tax cuts in Nebraska history. The state took over the operational funding of community colleges from property taxpayers. The governor also helped shepherd some wins on social issues that matter to conservatives, including laws restricting high school and college sports to a person’s sex at birth and restricting abortion. He’s backed private school vouchers and fought the teachers union — touting the state’s opting into the federal scholarship credit included in President Donald Trump’s tax and budget bill that passed last year as a victory.
He did enough that Trump endorsed his reelection before the candidate filing deadline. Trump won the reliably red state in 2016, 2020, and 2024, but has lost the state’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District in 2020 and 2024.
Still, Nebraska voters typically re-elect incumbent governors. But Democrats may have some reasons for hope. The party out of power typically does better in off-year elections when one party holds the presidency and both houses of Congress. Polling nationally and closer to home indicates that Democrats appear more excited than Republicans to vote in 2026.
Pillen is also dealing with economic malaise and a state budget shortfall he has described as a “make-believe” crisis. Democrats and some GOP lawmakers have said Nebraska will likely be forced to address structural budget challenges in upcoming legislative sessions no matter how it solves the short-term gap.
Pillen’s loyalty to Trump might also boost Democratic turnout after he has repeatedly tried and failed to shift the state to awarding its Electoral College voters for president to the statewide winner instead of parceling some votes out by congressional district, which many know as winner-take-all. Nebraska, under his watch was the first in the country to implement new federal work requirements for Medicaid recipients starting later this year.
And, while popular with many in his GOP base, Pillen’s team initiated conversations with the federal government about converting a state prison in McCook into a federal immigration jail for migrants.
Pillen is set to cruise through the GOP primary with lesser-known candidates Sheila Korth-Focken, Jacy Todd, Sal Holguin, John Walz, and Gary L. Rogge. In November’s general election, he will likely face Walz.
Walz unseated a Republican incumbent in a red district in 2017 and won reelection in 2020. She was seen as a swing vote on gender care and abortion, and she describes herself as a moderate — a playbook Ben Nelson followed as Nebraska’s last Democratic governor before the turn of the century.
UNL’s Barton said it would be “incredibly difficult” for any Democrat to unseat a Republican incumbent governor of Nebraska due to the makeup of the electorate, but Walz might have more bipartisan appeal than the last Democrat to run for governor, former Bellevue State Sen. Carol Blood.
The Walz campaign declined to comment on how it plans to combat Pillen’s fundraising haul. But in a previous interview with the Examiner, Walz said state “government is no longer working for the people” and that she would focus on daily issues rather than divisive national issues or the Washington, D.C.-style politics of “corruption or secret deals” that benefit the few.
In recent months, Walz has criticized Pillen’s handling of the no-bid contract, saying “the state auditor’s report raises serious concerns about favoritism, indicating the Governor’s Office awarded a large consulting contract without following the transparent process required by Nebraska law.”
Her campaign’s potential could limit Pillen’s spending on other races. Some on the Pillen team have said they expect a real contest in a tough year for GOP turnout.
Walz or any other challenger would need to raise a significant sum of money to compete. Pillen, like any incumbent governor, has received multiple contributions from large Nebraska donors, including Union Pacific, according to state campaign finance reports. He received a $20,000 donation from Tyson Foods and several other donations from companies focused on ethanol and agriculture.
Neilan said Pillen’s $10 million in the bank and an endorsement from Trump would be hard to beat — both in the primary and in a general election.
“[It’s] a winning formula for victory,” Neilan said.
