US strikes Iran after ceasefire ends, raising fears of escalation

The United States carried out strikes on Iran after President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire was over, following alleged Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. This scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum. They’re sick people,” Trump said.

The U.S. military targeted more than 80 Iranian sites last night in retaliation for alleged attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping lane.

“I don’t think it’s going to start again. I think it’s going to go very quickly. They hit a couple of ships. And so we hit them much harder. When they hit, we hit 10 times harder,” Trump said.

Dr. Robert Pape, an expert on war and international relations at the University of Chicago, expressed concerns about the potential for escalation.

“I think that we’re in one of the most dangerous periods we’ve had in this whole war. And the reason is because we are in a situation where President Trump and Iran both have reasons to escalate in the next couple weeks,” Pape said.

Pape describes the conflict as an escalation trap, unfolding in a series of stages. The first stage is a successful military strike, in which the U.S. hits targets and demonstrates its ability to impose costs. The second stage occurs when the target, Iran in this case, adapts or retaliates by taking the Strait of Hormuz instead of backing down. This can leave the stronger power facing a third stage: an escalation dilemma.

“Do we escalate? Which is very costly. Everybody now knows that. Or do we let Iran control the Strait of Hormuz, let Iran go on its merry way to get nuclear weapons, which it’s very likely to do now,” Dr. Pape said. “The most likely ending is going to be more escalation.”

Pape said the underlying problem is that the parties have not agreed on a new balance of power after the ceasefire. Instead, he said Israel, the United States and Iran are all jockeying for position, and all are willing to use force.

The Associated Press reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a halt.

Oil prices have risen since Trump declared the ceasefire over, and while gas prices do not always increase immediately, they can follow quickly. If the conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Americans could see higher gas prices in the coming weeks.

Get more from the Washington Bureau below: